An analysis of US statutory insurance data since 1992 shows that premium is more uncertain and harder to forecast than loss for several casualty lines! Property lines have loss-driven volatility caused by catastrophe losses. In contrast, liability lines have premium-driven volatility caused by the underwriting and pricing cycles.
Premium to GDP 1923-2020 • cyclical growth post-WW2 • cycle driven by commercial lines • cycle by line • growth by line • surplus and premium dynamics • loss ratio volatility by line • loss and premium dynamics • COVID effect.
Presented: David Wright: Podcast, CAS, and CAS Webinar; Aon, Liberty, Everest.
CAS Webinar slides When is Premium Riskier Than Loss?
For way more detail see PIRC C.
Podcast discussions with David Wright, host of the Not Unreasonable Podcast.